Can you trade a token unlock?

Short answer: People do, mostly by shorting before strong unlocks. It is a statistical edge with real risk, not a sure thing, and it is not advice.

The pattern on this site, big unlocks weakening against Bitcoin in the week before, is what traders try to use: open a short a few days ahead, close it around the date. Some exchanges list perpetual futures for the coin, which makes a short possible; the 'futures' column shows whether KuCoin or Binance do.

What the numbers say: about 2 in 3 strong unlocks fell against Bitcoin, by -5.1% on average. What they don't say: which one. One in three went the other way, sometimes sharply. Small coins can jump 20% on a rumour, and a short has no cap on its loss.

Costs matter too. Funding payments on perpetual futures, spreads on thin coins, and the fact that a crowded short can be squeezed on unlock day. A good number of 'obvious' unlock shorts lose money for exactly that reason.

We publish the calendar and the history so you can see the pattern yourself. We don't publish signals, and nothing here is financial advice. If you do trade, size small and learn how shorting and liquidation work first. The glossary covers the terms.

Updated 2026-10-27 with the current archive. Not financial advice.

Can you trade a token unlock?

More questions