Questions about token unlocks, answered

Plain answers with our own numbers behind them. Each one links to the pages that show the data.

• Do token unlocks crash prices?
  Usually not a crash, but large unlocks do tend to weigh on price, and mostly before the date, not after.
• When does the price react to a token unlock: before or after?
  Mostly before. The pressure builds in the days leading up to the date; unlock day itself is often quiet.
• Cliff vs linear vesting: what's the difference for the price?
  A cliff drops a batch of coins in one day; linear vesting trickles them out daily. The one-day kind is what moves markets.
• Why compare an unlock with circulating supply, not total supply?
  Because only circulating coins trade. The same unlock can be 2% of total supply and 20% of what's actually on the market.
• Who receives unlocked tokens, and do they sell?
  Teams, early investors, advisors and treasuries. Some sell at once, some never; the recipient type is a useful hint, not a rule.
• Where do token unlock dates come from, and how reliable are they?
  From project documents and on-chain contracts, collected by calendars like CoinMarketCap and DefiLlama. Mostly right, sometimes off by days.
• What counts as a strong token unlock, and why 10.4%?
  An unlock that adds at least 10.4% to circulating supply. Above that line, prices behaved differently in our data; below it, they didn't.
• Can you trade a token unlock?
  People do, mostly by shorting before strong unlocks. It is a statistical edge with real risk, not a sure thing, and it is not advice.