Do token unlocks crash prices?

Short answer: Usually not a crash, but large unlocks do tend to weigh on price, and mostly before the date, not after.

The short version: big unlocks lean on price, small ones don't, and the move tends to happen in the week before the unlock rather than on the day.

In our archive of 305 unlocks from 2023 to 2026, we measured each coin against Bitcoin over the 7 days before its unlock. Of 100 strong unlocks (at least 10.4% of circulating supply), 68 were weaker than Bitcoin, by -5.1% on average. Of 79 small unlocks (under 5%), 41 fell, which is a coin toss.

Why before and not after? Unlock dates are public months in advance. Traders who expect selling sell first, or open shorts, so the pressure arrives early. By the time the coins are actually free, much of the move is often done. Larger studies say the same: market maker Keyrock looked at 16,000+ unlocks and found pressure often starting around 30 days ahead.

A crash is a different thing. Most strong unlocks drift a few percent against Bitcoin; a −30% day is rare and usually has other causes stacked on top (a weak market, a team that sells openly, thin liquidity). One in three strong unlocks in our data did not fall at all.

What to take from this: treat a strong unlock as a headwind, not a verdict. Check the calendar for the size against circulating supply, then look at who receives the coins on the token's page.

Updated 2026-10-27 with the current archive. Not financial advice.

Do token unlocks crash prices?

More questions