What counts as a strong token unlock, and why 10.4%?

Short answer: An unlock that adds at least 10.4% to circulating supply. Above that line, prices behaved differently in our data; below it, they didn't.

We call an unlock strong when the coins released equal at least 10.4% of the coins already trading, roughly a tenth of the market arriving at once. Medium is 5–10.4%, small is under 5%.

The line isn't round on purpose. It was chosen on the first part of our 305-unlock archive as the size where the week-before behaviour changed, then checked on the rest. Rounding to 10% would have meant picking the line after seeing the answer. The difference is small in practice, but the habit matters.

Above the line, 68 of 100 unlocks were weaker than Bitcoin the week before, average -5.1%. In the medium band (125 unlocks) we found no reliable pattern. Below 5% it is noise: 41 of 79 fell.

Every strong unlock in the next 14 days sits at the top of the calendar. The strong.ics feed puts them into your own calendar with a 7-day reminder.

Updated 2026-10-27 with the current archive. Not financial advice.

What counts as a strong token unlock, and why 10.4%?

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