When does the price react to a token unlock: before or after?
Because unlock schedules are published, the market rarely waits for the coins to arrive. Our measurement window is the 7 days before the date, and that is where the pattern lives: 68 of 100 strong unlocks were weaker than Bitcoin in that week.
On the day itself three things can happen. The recipients sell into the market, and the price dips further. They sell privately (OTC) and nothing shows on the chart. Or they hold, shorts close, and the price bounces. We can't tell in advance which one it will be, and neither can anyone else.
That's why our alerts go out 7 days ahead, not on the day. If you want to watch a coin around an unlock, start watching a week early. The weekly pages list what's coming.
Updated 2026-10-27 with the current archive. Not financial advice.
More questions
- Do token unlocks crash prices?
- Cliff vs linear vesting: what's the difference for the price?
- Why compare an unlock with circulating supply, not total supply?
- Who receives unlocked tokens, and do they sell?
- Where do token unlock dates come from, and how reliable are they?
- What counts as a strong token unlock, and why 10.4%?
- Can you trade a token unlock?
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